In the past few hours, the Middle East has entered a phase of “difficult days.” A U.S. official told Al Arabiya and Al Hadath that the “grace period is over,” indicating that anything could happen now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Iran Weighs Its Options<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The U.S. closely monitors the actions of regional players, especially Iran, following any significant event in the Middle East. American officials have learned that after Iran suffers a blow, it undergoes a period of internal debate, during which various factions of the Iranian state, including the Revolutionary Guard and the Supreme Leader, evaluate their options. U.S. intelligence refers to this period as the “grace period,” during which Iran’s response is delayed. This phase is also called the “sweet spot,” but during these days, the Iranians work on formulating plans to retaliate. Now, U.S. officials believe that this grace period has ended, and the region has entered the phase of “difficult days,” where Iran might respond to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Hezbollah could also be prepared to coordinate a potential attack with Tehran in response to the killing of Fuad Shukr, one of Hezbollah’s senior commanders, in Beirut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Messages from the Americans<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n During this grace period, the U.S. used the time to send messages to Tehran and its proxies, emphasizing that Washington does not seek escalation. The U.S. has utilized all available diplomatic channels to convey this message to Tehran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Many American officials have confirmed that Washington used established diplomatic channels, such as the Swiss embassy in Tehran, to deliver this message. The U.S. also relied on allies, including the British Prime Minister, the French President, and the German Chancellor, to hold talks with Iran\u2019s new president and convey that the U.S. and other parties do not desire escalation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Fear for American Troops<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n There is a significant concern among American officials that Tehran might have used the “grace period” to coordinate a larger and more severe attack than the one on April 13th. U.S. officials now believe that Iran has many options, including launching a direct attack from Iranian territory in cooperation with its proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Several American officials expressed particular concern over potential Iranian or proxy attacks on U.S. soldiers stationed in Iraq and Syria. One official emphasized that these soldiers are at risk, and the U.S. does not want any harm to come to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It is evident that the coordinated Iranian attack with its militias poses a threat not only to Israel’s security but also to American forces, creating significant tension within the Biden administration, especially within the Department of Defense, which is directly responsible for U.S. troops in the Middle East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n U.S. Offensive Posture<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n What heightens the risks during these “difficult days” is that Iran has shown no intention of responding positively to European efforts or American messages, and there have been no indications from Iranian leaders that Tehran is willing to back down from its threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In response to escalating Iranian threats, the U.S. has shifted from a defensive to an offensive posture. Since the tensions began, Washington has deployed additional naval forces to the eastern Mediterranean, the Red Sea, and the Arabian Gulf, along with missile defense batteries in the region. A look at the deployment map shows that these forces were well-positioned to counter any significant attack from Iran and its militias.<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, in the past two days, there has been a noticeable shift in U.S. capabilities. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced that he had ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier to move more quickly to the Middle East and directed a U.S. submarine armed with Tomahawk missiles to enter the Central Command area of operations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Preparing for Escalation<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n A senior military official told Al Arabiya and Al Hadath that while the U.S. had significant capabilities in the Middle East from the beginning, the aircraft carrier and submarine are offensive forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It should not be interpreted that the U.S. intends to engage in preemptive action or rush to strike Iranian targets, but as one American official told Al Arabiya and Al Hadath, “these offensive capabilities are in place to respond to a potential escalation phase.” He described escalation scenarios involving a coordinated Iranian attack with its militias, potential casualties, and a possible Israeli response, which would indeed constitute an escalation, necessitating U.S. preparedness to strike Iranian or militia targets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This Is the Middle East<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n These are indeed difficult days, and the Biden administration does not want anything to happen. “Everyone knows that the U.S. political leadership wants to focus its attention elsewhere, but this is the Middle East, and we must be prepared for anything,” said one American official, highlighting the challenging nature of this phase.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" In the past few hours, the Middle East has entered a phase of “difficult days.” A U.S. official told Al Arabiya and Al Hadath that the “grace period is over,” indicating that anything could happen now. Iran Weighs Its Options The U.S. closely monitors the actions of regional players, especially Iran, following any significant event […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1326,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1325","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\n